As firefighters have struggled to reach containment, the Carr fire has burned across more than 130,000 acres and more than 200 square miles. This has a huge impact on the land and real estate in Shasta County, Calif.
As of August 2nd at 11:36 a.m. Pacific Time, CalFire reported the fire had destroyed 1,060 residences, 18 commercial structures, and 477 outbuildings, and damaged 186 residences, eight commercial structures and 64 outbuildings. (A survey of building damage is underway, and updates can be found at the following CalFire link.)
We matched up fire and evacuation zones as reported by CalFire on August 2, 2018 with our database of residential properties and found the following:
- The 1,130 residential properties within the designated fire boundaries had a total value of $397 million, including two- to four-unit multi-family properties, mobile and manufactured homes, single-family homes, and other residential properties.
- Within the evacuation zones, 10,296 properties were worth an estimated $2.7 billion, including five-plus-unit multi-family properties, two- to four-unit multi-family properties, mobile and manufactured homes, and condominiums, as well as single-family homes and other residential properties.
- Single-family homes within the fire boundary had a median value of $337,000, while those in the evacuation zone had a median value of $251,000.
- For comparison, the median-list price of homes on the market in Shasta County, California has ranged from $318,900 to $333,050 in the first seven months of 2018. The typical home within the fire boundary is more expensive than the typical home for sale in Shasta County, while the typical home within the evacuation zone is less expensive.
For context, the total value of real estate in Shasta County, California is $12.8 billion, based on 50,208 residential properties in the realtor.com database. There were 882 actively for-sale homes on the market in Shasta County in July, fewer than official estimates of residences destroyed by the fire. The real estate market in Shasta County has seen the number of for-sale listings grow since fall 2017 even as days on market declined, suggesting that as inventory expanded buyers were actively purchasing homes.
We can expect the Carr Fire to disrupt the real estate markets for the next few months. In the short-term, owners and residents will likely relocate locally, potentially driving prices of undamaged homes for rent and for sale higher. Once owners and residents determine how their homes fared and begin to think about rebuilding, they may reassess the viability of remaining in the community over the long-term, leading to declines in rents and home prices.